2017 NFL Betting Picks : Week 2

Week 1 560x280Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season went exactly according to plan. The heavily favored Patriots got slammed at home by the Chiefs, the perpetually terrible Browns nearly upset the Steelers, and the Rams scored 46 points, more than any other team. Everyone predicted all that would happen, right? No? Welcome to the NFL, where expecting the expected is a recipe for disaster, especially when it comes to betting.

Home favorites went 6-4 ATS in Week 1 while road underdogs were 3-2 ATS. The Pats and Steelers both failed to cover as more than touchdown favorites, and the Texans and Bengals were outscored 49-7 giving 5.5 and 3 points respectively. Due to such a small sample size, it’s a tad early to start anointing the Jags and Ravens as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but it should serve as a warning that this is a brand new season. Wager at your own risk.

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My BookieWith Week 1 in the books, it’s time to move on to the second weekend of the 2017 season. It’s an intriguing slate, highlighted by a pair of double-digit home favorites in Oakland and Seattle. Enough chit chat, let’s get to the picks.

Week 2 NFL Picks ATS

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Arizona at Indianapolis +7

The Colts were a 22-car pileup in Week 1, allowing Jared Goff and a ferocious Rams defense to rip them to pieces. “Backup” Scott Tolzein looked like a Division III quarterback making his first NFL start in tossing a pair of pick-sixes and a handful of otherwise laughable throws. On the flipside, old man Carson Palmer fired a trio of interceptions with a pick-six of his own as Arizona was bashed and bruised in the Motor City. To be frank, neither team performed anywhere close to a professional level.

The fact that the Cards are giving 7.5 points on the road shows how little faith oddsmakers have in Indy. Can the Colts possibly play worse than they did a week ago inside their own building? Are the Cardinals capable of bouncing back away from home versus arguably the league’s number one bottom-feeder without All-Pro running back David Johnson who is out for at least two months with a dislocated wrist?

Zona is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in the series, but 3-8 ATS in their last 11, and 2-5 ATS on the road in the last seven. Indy is 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and 1-4 ATS in the last five overall.

Bet Arizona +7

2017 vikes 560x315Minnesota at Pittsburgh -5.5

The 1-0 Steelers were less than impressive in beating Cleveland, while the 1-0 Vikings were razor sharp in dispatching the Saints on Monday night. Le’Veon Bell clearly wasn’t himself after skipping all of training camp, and Big Ben once again struggled outside of Heinz Field. Someone who didn’t struggle was much-maligned Vikings signal-caller Sam Bradford, who may have played the best game of his career, passing for 346 yards and three touchdowns.

A potent defense, rebuilt offensive line, and rookie runner Dalvin Cook have Minnesota on the right track to start 2017. But traveling to Pittsburgh to face what should be the angry and motivated Steelers is no easy task, especially on a short week. And Bradford will be opposed by an actual NFL defense, not the pretend one the Saints spill onto the field each week. Roethlisberger has passed for 669 yards and six scores in his last two home openers, both lopsided victories over NFC opponents.

The vikings are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 and 1-5 ATS in the last six away from home. Pittsburgh 2-3-1 ATS in their last six at home and 2-4 ATS in the last six in the series.

Bet Pittsburgh -5.5

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Dallas at Denver +2

The Cowboys handled their business at home against a woeful Giants team missing Odell Beckham. Were they dominant, or was Big Blue just that bad? Hard to tell, but Dallas utilized the same gameplan Sunday night that won them 12 games in 2016: run Zeke Elliott early and often thus lessening the burden on quarterback Dak Prescott. It wasn’t pretty, but it was very effective against a very stout defense. And once again, Rod Marianelli’s low on talent defense turned Eli Manning into a frightened manchild ducking for cover.

The Broncos deployed a similar strategy versus rival San Diego. The backfield duo of CJ Anderson and Jamal Charles totaled 121 yards and helped keep Philip Rivers on the sideline. When Rivers was on the field, Denver’s excellent defense gave him fits all night. If they can stuff Zeke the way they did Melvin Gordon, their superior secondary should contain an average Cowboys receiving corps. However, if they allow Elliott to control the clock and tempo, Trevor Siemian will have to make big plays to secure a win. That’s not a script the Broncos want to see written.

Dallas is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, and 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight matchups with Denver. The Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall and 5-0 SU in the last five meetings with the ‘Boys.

Bet Denver +2

Week 2 NFL OVER/UNDER Picks

17 bucs 1 560x360Chicago at Tampa Bay OVER/UNDER 43

The Bucs host Chicago after an unfortunate Week 1 bye due to Hurricane Irma. Will they be extra pumped to play or extra rusty because of the lengthy layoff? The Bears gave the defending NFC Champion Falcons all they could handle at home in Week 1, despite being completely undermanned on offense. Rookie runner Tarik Cohen provided a huge spark, but counting on the diminutive dual-threat for an encore against an aggressive Tampa front seven would be unwise. However, a game Bears defense that held Atlanta to 308 yards could pose problems for a Bucs attack without a suspended Doug Martin.

The total has gone OVER in four of the last six in the series, but Tamps has hit the UNDER in five of their last seven overall. It might take the Bucs a half to get their act together, so expect the score to be on the low side.

Bet the UNDER

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NY Jets at Oakland OVER/UNDER 43.5

The Jets put up a fight in Buffalo last week but only managed to score 12 points and net 214 total yards. A trip to Oakland this week presents a much tougher challenge. David Carr sliced and diced a Titans defense with a lot more talent than the Jets. This will be an ugly blowout win for the Silver and Black. But the question is how many points will the offense compile before the starters are pulled? If the Jets muster 10 points, this means Oakland will have to post 34 to hit the OVER, which doesn’t seem overly difficult. They scored 34 or more four times in 2016, including three at home.

The Jets have hit the UNDER in six of their last eight road games, while Oakland has topped the OVER in eight of their last 12 overall. The OVER has also hit in four of the last five meetings in the series.

Bet the UNDER

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Green Bay at Atlanta OVER/UNDER 53.5

In both 2016 meetings between these NFC powers the total was 65 on the dot. Neither offense looked sharp in last week’s opener, but some of that can be attributed to the normal Week 1 “feeling it out” period. The fast track in Atlanta’s brand new stadium combined with the Sunday night lights should ramp up the scoring. With Rodgers, Ryan, Nelson, and Julio, among others, there will be no shortage of starpower motivated to perform at a high level on the primetime stage. The likelihood of a defensive battle is remote. That said, 53.5 is a huge number, especially early in the season.

The OVER has hit in seven of Green Bay’s last eight, in nine of Atlanta’s last ten overall, and in Atlanta’s last five at home. The total has also gone OVER in nine of the last 13 matchups in the series. All signs point toward a high-scoring shootout.

Bet the OVER

Week 2 NFL Fantasy Picks

17 lynch 560x373RB Marshawn Lynch – Raiders

The Jets pathetic run defense yielded 190 yards to the Bills in Week 1. Lynch rumbled for 76 yards and chipped in one catch for 16 yards against a solid Titans defense. The old man might be on a pitch count early in the season, but 80 yards and a touchdown is likely in what should be an easy victory for the Silver and Black.

QB Philip Rivers – Chargers

The Dolphins ranked 25th in passing TDs allowed in 2016 and did little in the offseason to fix the problem. Rivers wasn’t great in the Monday night loss to Denver, but he did fire a trio of touchdown passes. With a glut of quality receivers at his disposal, expect a minimum of 260 yards and two touchdown tosses.

WR Mike Wallace – Ravens

Wallace has averaged 17.9 yards per catch and notched 4 scores in ten career games against Cleveland. The underrated Browns front seven put the clamps on Le’Veon Bell last Sunday and will be solid against the duo of Terrance West and Buck Allen. Standard league owners should strongly consider sliding Wallace into their lineups.

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